Excessive Social Inequality as a Serious Challenge to the Demographic Security of Mod-ern Russia with Considering the Supply Chain Strategy Effects

The article substantiates the idea that increasing social inequality and persistent large-scale poverty in post-Soviet Russia should be considered as one of the main reasons for the low birth rate in the country and a serious challenge to ensuring its demographic security. The authors propose a concept of demographic security and outline its primary indicators and their threshold values—the methodological basis for diagnosing and forecasting demographic processes from the perspective of Russia’s national and economic security. The authors analyzed the influence of excessive social inequality on the demographics in the country for the period from 1990 to 2018. The authors used a step-by-step analysis algorithm and built a multiple regression equation that reflects the impact of various socio-economic factors, including excessive inequality and deformation of people’s social behavior, on life expectancy. The equation has a high explanatory power (the adjusted coefficient of determination isṜ2= 0.914).Thus, it can be used as the methodological basis when proposing measures for maintaining and increasing life potential of society that is an optimal solution for ensuring demographic security in present conditions. The study presents recommendations on the development of an active national socio-economic policy aimed at overcoming excessive social inequality in Russia and ensuring its demographic security

Demographic security as a basis of sustainable development of the state

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL ASPECTS (Novopolotsk, 25 - 26 October 2012) V.2. p.2 Gass, M.V.Секция 5. ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВЫ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ФОРМ РАЗВИТИЯ И ФАКТОРОВ РОСТА НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ СИСТЕМ

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Demographic Security of the Republic of Belarus

Security is a necessary component of the life of individuals and society as a whole. One of the most important components of the national security is demographic security, which achievement in the Republic of Belarus means the neutralization of threats such as depopulation, population ageing, degradation of the family institute and unregulated migration processes. The article presents a methodology for a comprehensive statistical assessment of the demographic security of the Republic of Belarus for 2000–2019, based on of the dualistic approach to the interpretation of this concept, proposed by the author, namely: real and potential demographic security. The real demographic security is the degree of protection from demographic threats in the current social circumstances, which is largely determined by the compliance of government policy with demographic realities. The proposed methodology for a comprehensive assessment of demographic security includes five consecutive phases: formulating a definition of “demographic security”, identifying demographic threats, building a set of indicators for a comprehensive statistical assessment of demographic security, assessing the effect of demographic threats (general and real), and, finally, assessing the degree of protection from demographic threats (real demographic security). The structural components of the overall strength of demographic threats are the degrees of real demographic security and the real strength of the threats. The following trend in these values was observed in the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2019: an increase in the degree of real demographic security in parallel with a decrease in the degree of real combined strength of threats in 2015 compared to 2000, giving way to a decrease in the first indicator and an increase in the second one in 2019. It follows that the achievements of the Republic of Belarus in demographic security were short-lived. For a systemic change in the negative trends, it is necessary to form a favorable demographic situation through the active use of educational and propagandist measures

Demographic Security Trends in Southeastern Europe

Over the past three decades we have witnessed an evolution of the concept of security in general and of demographic security as a specific field of security studies. The approach to security has been changing both in regards to a widening of subjects and referent objects of security, and a widening of the security domain. Consideration of the demographic component in the security sphere has evolved in accordance with this development; the scope of perspectives through which demographic security is viewed and defined has expanded – the population composition, population dynamics and human capital paradigm. Aspects of demographics and security are in continuous interaction and interdependence which significantly determines demographic security and national security. The aim of this paper is to establish a specific link between demographic security and security in ten post-socialist countries of South Eastern Europe (SEE). In accordance with this aim, an analysis has been made of the compositional elements and population dynamics in order to determine demographic security of the observed states. The analysis indicates unfavourable demographic security, and negative demographic composition and dynamics in most of observed states, which suggests that demographic security will have a continuing negative impact on the security of the countries analysed and the region as a whole

Demographic safety in the conditions of the fourth revolution

The provisions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which may affect the demographic security of the country, are considered. For Ukraine, which is a source of low-cost labor, the problem of demographic security is considered through aspects of demographic and educational criteria. The idea that the parameters of changes in the demographic security of the country are caused by the dynamics of the crude birth rate, death rate, natural increase, migration, and education level is substantiated. Based on the methodology proposed by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, demographic security studies have been conducted for the country as a whole. It has been established that the socioeconomic and demographic development of certain regions of Ukraine is not homogeneous, so it requires radical decisions at the local and national levels

К ВОПРОСУ О ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИХ ПОДХОДАХ К ОЦЕНКЕ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

The article deals with the theoretical estimates of demographic security issues. Analyzed different approaches to statistical evaluation of demographic security. An original system of statistical indicators of demographic security.В статье рассмотрены теоретические вопросы оценки демографической безопасности. Проанализированы различные подходы к статистической оценки демографической безопасности. Построена оригинальная система статистических показателей демографической безопасности

ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ: ТЕОРИЯ, МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ, ОЦЕНКА

The paper analyzes the theoretical aspects of demographic security. Reviewed and analyzed the point of view of various scholars to the definition of demographic security. The main directions of statistical analysis of demographic security.В статье проанализированы теоретические аспекты демографической безопасности. Рассмотрены и проанализированы точки зрения различных ученых к определению понятия демографической безопасности. Определены основные направления статистического анализа демографической безопасности

Relationship between Demographic Potential Indicators and Climatic Aspects of Water Stress

The purpose of this study is to determine the characteristics of demographic potential, its relationship with demographic security, as well as to analyze the influence, including environmental processes on the components of demographic potential. The work methodically substantiates the selection of indicators for calculating demographic potential and demographic security. In accordance with this, integrated indices of demographic potential were calculated for the EAEU countries. In general, the demographic potential for the EAEU countries according to their indices can be assessed as follows: 1. Kazakhstan (5.75); 2. Kyrgyzstan (5.51); 3. Belarus (5.07); 4. Armenia (4.86). 5. Russian Federation (4.06). The analysis showed that each country has the potential for its further development by improving the indicators included in the integral index. As a result, the presented methodological approaches made it possible to calculate integral indices to determine the position of each EAEU country in terms of demographic potential, determine the indicator of demographic security in Kyrgyzstan, and link the processes of external migration from Kyrgyzstan with the shortage of water resources in the country. The methodology we presented for determining the state of demographic potential and demographic security allows us to carry out calculations of this phenomenon for any country

Demographic Situation and Demographic Security in the Regions of Russia’s Western Borderlands

In this study, I address the vast and complicated problem of population replacement in Russia’s border regions. Although both national and regional dedemographic indicators have improved in Russia in recent years, many issues relating to sub-replacement fertility, irrational migration, etc. remain unresolved. This lends an urgency to studying regional demographic security, namely, the problems of ensuring replacement fertility, regulating migrations, and overcoming a skewed age and sex structure. I provide a detailed definition of the notion of demographic security and a list of indicators for evaluating it. I stress typological differences in the demographic situation across Russia’s western borderlands to ensure a differentiated approach to providing regional demographic security. In this study, I use economic-statistical methods, a comparative analysis, and an empirical typology of regions based on the above indicators. In terms of theory, the findings obtained can contribute to a more detailed definition of demographic security and a better methodology of regional population studies. In practical terms, the study has relevance to the development of proposals for improving national and regional demographic policy and regional strategic planning given the identified typological differences

Показники оцінки демографічної безпеки

The problems of assessment of demographic security as a component of national security are discussed in the paper. The main purpose of the study is to determine the list of indicators characterizing the demographic security and to find a method of their introduction into an integral indicator.Analysis of the list of indicators that are proposed by the approved methodology for assessment of demographic security level showed its incompleteness as a result of the lack of the indicator characterizing the migration processes. The study of approaches of scientists in this area allowed to complement this list with two more indicators: depopulation factor and the average age of population. It is proposed to form an integral indicator for the assessment of security demographic level. Weight coefficients of the integral indicator are suggested to determine using the method of preferences. Next, the level of demographic security is determined by normalizing the actual values of indicators. Maximum value of the indicator on the basis of normalization will be equal to one. The obtained formula allows the assessment of the demographic security level of region and country as a whole.Представлено анализ существующих показателей и методик определения уровня демографической безопасности как составляющей национальной безопасности. Выявлено, что существующие методики не учитывают показатели, которые характеризуют влияние миграционных процессов. Предложено дополнить существующий перечень показателей-индикаторов и использовать интегральный показатель оценки уровня демографической безопасности, который формируется на основе методу преимуществ и нормализации значений индикаторов.Представлено аналіз існуючих показників та методик визначення рівня демографічної безпеки як складової національної безпеки. Виявлено, що існуючі методики не враховують показники, які характеризують вплив міграційних процесів. Запропоновано доповнити перелік існуючих показників-індикаторів та використовувати інтегральний показник оцінки рівня демографічної безпеки, який формується на основі методу переваг та нормалізації значень індикаторів